Frequently Asked Questions

Why do tokenization forecasts for 2030 vary by a factor of fifteen? The variance comes almost entirely from scope, not from disagreement about direction. Forecasts that include stablecoins and tokenized deposits land far higher than forecasts that exclude them. Forecasts that fold in trade finance and physical assets land higher still. McKinsey’s conservative approach and Standard Chartered’s inclusive approach are measuring related but distinct things, not competing predictions of the same number.

What does tokenization actually change about a private-market investment? Tokenization represents an ownership claim, whether in a fund interest, a bond, or another private asset, as a transferable digital instrument recorded on a blockchain. It does not change the underlying asset or the fund structure holding it. It changes how the claim on that asset can move, be priced, and be used as collateral.

Why has real-world adoption lagged the forecasts by this much? Current tokenized real-world asset market size sits at roughly $27 billion to $60 billion, depending on scope, against 2030 forecasts in the trillions. The gap reflects unresolved infrastructure: continuous pricing (oracle systems), custody, redemption rights, and secondary trading venues are still being built vehicle by vehicle rather than to a shared standard, and regulatory frameworks remain uneven across jurisdictions.

Is tokenization a replacement for continuation vehicles and secondaries markets? No. Continuation vehicles and secondaries markets operate at the level of the fund. Tokenization operates at the level of the underlying ownership claim. The two are more likely to converge, with existing fund-structure tools eventually running on tokenized rails, than to displace one another.

What signals institutional conviction beyond the forecasts themselves? Balance-sheet commitments to the infrastructure layer are a stronger signal than any market-size projection. Apollo’s four-year agreement to acquire tokens in the Morpho protocol and its participation, alongside BlackRock, in Circle’s Arc blockchain presale are both commitments to the rails rather than to a single product, which is a different and more durable kind of conviction than a pilot program represents

Sources

  • Tokenized asset market 2030 forecast (~$1.9–2T base case, $4T optimistic scenario): McKinsey & Company, “From Ripples to Waves: The Transformational Power of Tokenizing Assets,” June 2024
  • Tokenized asset market forecast ($9.4T by 2030, $18.9T by 2033, 53% CAGR): Boston Consulting Group / Ripple, joint tokenization report, April 2025
  • Tokenized digital securities forecast ($4–5T by 2030): Citi GPS, “Money, Tokens, and Games,” 2023, as referenced in comparative industry analysis
  • Tokenization market forecast ($30T by 2034, broader scope including trade finance): Standard Chartered, tokenization market projection, as referenced in comparative industry analysis
  • Current tokenized real-world asset market size (~$27–60B, early 2026) and US/EU regulatory asymmetry (MiCA fully applicable December 2024; no unified US statute as of mid-2026): Coinpaprika, “The $16 Trillion Tokenization Market Forecast Explained,” May 2026
  • RedStone acquisition of Security Token Market (800+ tokenized products tracked, $60B+ combined market cap): RedStone / Crowdfund Insider, January 2026
  • Apollo–Morpho cooperation agreement (up to 90 million tokens over 48 months, ~9% of governance token supply): Morpho Association, official announcement, February 2026
  • Circle Arc token presale ($222M raised, $3B fully diluted valuation, BlackRock and Apollo among participants): CNBC, “Circle raises $222 million from BlackRock, Apollo and others in Arc token presale valued at $3 billion,” May 11, 2026

This article is published for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice.