The Economics of Intelligence After Training: What Serious Capital Underwrites Once a Model Ships
The Economics of Intelligence After Training: What Serious Capital Underwrites Once a Model Ships A model’s capability is settled in the training run; its economics are settled afterwards, in the cost of serving a token. A perspective from Open Doors Partners _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Artificial intelligence has been underwritten as a training story. Capital went into one […]
The Long Middle: What Happens to a Position Between Entry and Exit
The Long Middle: What Happens to a Position Between Entry and Exit A perspective from Open Doors Partners. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ A public position is re-priced every day; a private one is re-examined only when someone decides to. Almost all of the attention paid to a private investment is spent on the decision to make it. That […]
The Circular Trade: Separating a Tested Price from a Consensus One
The Circular Trade: Separating a Tested Price from a Consensus One A price set by the party who benefits from it being higher is not automatically wrong. What determines whether it can be trusted is whether anything independent was allowed to test it. A perspective from Open Doors Partners _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ A continuation vehicle is priced […]
Before the Front Page: How the Biggest Private Market Themes Get Built While No One Is Watching
Before the Front Page: How the Biggest Private Market Themes Get Built While No One Is Watching Hyperscale capital expenditure rose from $107 billion in 2020 to $143 billion in 2021, a year before the product that would make AI a mainstream investment story had even reached the public. Private credit compounded at roughly 20% […]
Beneath the Fund: How Serious Capital Is Reading the Tokenization Forecasts
Beneath the Fund: How Serious Capital Is Reading the Tokenization Forecasts A forecasting spread from two trillion to thirty trillion dollars says less about tokenization’s ceiling than about how unevenly the market agrees on what to count. A perspective from Open Doors Partners _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Institutional forecasts on the tokenized asset market by 2030 range from […]
The Denominator Effect: How Serious Capital Found Itself Over-Allocated Without Buying Anything.
The Denominator Effect: How Serious Capital Found Itself Over-Allocated Without Buying Anything In 2022, private allocation percentages rose across institutional portfolios not because commitments increased, but because the public market against which they were measured contracted. A perspective from Open Doors Partners. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Two Clocks, One Portfolio Two portfolios can move in opposite directions without […]
Capital Destinations: How Sovereign Capital Is Redrawing the Map of Private Markets
Capital Destinations: How Sovereign Capital Is Redrawing the Map of Private Markets The conventional geography of private markets — Bay Area, New York, London — is no longer the whole picture. Sovereign capital is building new destinations from the ground up, and the companies formed inside them are not waiting for validation from the centres […]
The Optionality Premium: How Private Capital Is Pricing the Dual-Use Advantage in Defence Technology
The Optionality Premium: How Private Capital Is Pricing the Dual-Use Advantage in Defence Technology The valuation gap between defence companies that serve one customer and those that serve two is not a rounding error. It is a structural signal about how sophisticated private capital thinks about concentration risk in defence technology investment in 2026. A […]
The Hidden Cost Structure of AI: Why Inference Economics Are Reshaping Private Market Valuation
The Hidden Cost Structure of AI: Why Inference Economics Are Reshaping Private Market Valuation The market has spent three years pricing AI companies on the cost of building the technology. The companies operating inside it are now living against the cost of running it — and the two have little resemblance to one another. A […]
72 Hours: How Deal Velocity Has Become the New Dimension of Private Market Access
72 Hours: How Deal Velocity Has Become the New Dimension of Private Market Access The compression of private round timelines from months to days is not a cyclical pattern. It is a structural reorganization of how consequential private capital allocations are determined — and which investors are present when they close. A perspective from Open […]